Trade Strategy 11.25.15

Markets

A flurry of U.S. economic data will be crammed into the market session today, as trading activity slows before a long Thanksgiving weekend. Up ahead: Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, Personal Income, New Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment and EIA Petroleum Inventories. The figures come on the back of a solid revision to third quarter GDP and could provide more evidence that the economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike in December. (Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Durable Goods
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:45 PMI Services Index Flash
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
12:00 PM EIA Natural Gas Inventory

PTG Trading

Tuesday’s Session was a textbook Cycle Day 1 Decline which began Monday, as price probed lower to find a new “secure low” from which to stage this cycle’s rally. Retest of 2066.00 proved successful as price rallied to reach the 2091.50 SPOT.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NEUTRAL SPILL UP…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.75; Possible HOD = 2101.00; Possible LOD = 2078.50.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2091.50), THEN upside expansion targets 2094.50 – 2096.25 STATX Zone, followed by 2100.75 CD2 Average Penetration Level.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2091.50) keeps price within prior range to consolidate recent gains…Levels to be mindful of for renewed buy response on pullbacks are; 2083.00, 2080.25, 2078.50 Central Pivot Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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