Trade Strategy 11.28.18

Markets
 
U.S. stock index futures rose 0.3% ahead of the speech, with the dollar nearing 2018 highs, powered by remarks from Larry Kudlow that the upcoming G20 summit was an opportunity to “turn the page” on the U.S.-Sino trade war. Other economic news today includes the Commerce Department’s second estimate of third-quarter GDP growth, which is expected to be confirmed at a 3.5% annualized rate.
 
In Asia, Japan +1%. Hong Kong +1.3%. China +1.1%. India +0.6%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.1%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude -0.1% to $51.49. Gold +0.1% to $1214.10. Bitcoin +9.2% to $4002. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 3.05%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 GDP Q3
8:30 International trade in goods
8:30 Corporate profits
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $18B, 2-Year FRN Auction
12:00 PM Jerome Powell: “The Federal Reserve’s Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability”
1:00 PM Results of $32B, 7-Year Note Auction

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link Click this link to view:
 

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2642.00. Average Range for CD1 is 41.50 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 20 = 42%

CD1 Range High = 2722.75       CD1 Range Low = 2650.75         CD1 Range Avg = 41.50 

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2676, THEN upside targets 2691.75 – 2695.50 STATX Zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2676, THEN downside targets 2660.25 – 2655.50 STATX Zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2619.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2654.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2655.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2708.00; 10 Day Average True Range 38.00; VIX: 18.67

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 6565.00. Average Range for CD1 is 157.25 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 25 = 64%

CD1 Range High = 6762.50          CD1 Range Low = 6585.00          CD1 Range Avg = 154.25

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 6684.00, THEN upside targets 6739.50 – 6752.25 STATX Zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 6684.00, THEN downside targets 6629.75 – 6616.25 STATX Zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 6847.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6605.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6616.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 6774.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 138.00; VIX: 18.67

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN