Trade Strategy 11.9.18

Markets
 
Oil fell below the $60 levelovernight a day after slipping into a bear market. That means U.S. crude is now down by around 20% since early October as rising supply and concerns of an economic slowdown pressure prices. Fresh U.S. sanctions are unlikely to cut as much oil out of the market as initially expected with Washington granting temporary exemptions to Iran’s biggest buyers. American production has also reached a new record high of 11.6M bbl/day.
 
U.S. equities look poised to slip again at the open, continuing a global market retreat after the Fed appeared to remain on track to raise to its key rate next month. Some traders had hoped that the sharp stock selloff during what has been called “Red October” might have encouraged the central bank to take a more dovish approach, but a statement confirmed expectations of “further gradual increases” in the prime lending rate.
 
In Asia, Japan -1.1%. Hong Kong -2.4%. China -1.4%. India -0.2%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.9%. Paris -1.1%. Frankfurt -0.8%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.6%. Nasdaq -0.8%. Crude -1.6% to $59.72. Gold -0.4% to $1219.80. Bitcoin -0.8% to $6376. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 3.21%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

8:30 Producer Price Index
9:00 Randal Quarles Speech
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
10:00 Wholesale Trade
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link Click this link to view:

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price are slipping lower in Globex Session testing 2790 support level outlined in prior DTS Briefing 11.8.18.Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2800, THEN downside targets 2795 – 2790 zone.” Bulls will need to defend this level and push higher to convert 2800 to neutralize the current pressure. IF successful, 2806 – 08 zone would be next hurdle.

CD3 Range High = 2812.50          CD3 Range Low = 2788.50          CD3 Range Avg = 37.50 

Scenario 1: IF price holds hid above 2790, THEN initial upside targets 2800 roundie. IF cleared and converted, THEN further upside measures 2806 – 2808 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 2790 to lower resistance, THEN downside targets 2783 – 2778.50 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2833.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2767.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2744.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2783.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2772.00; 10 Day Average True Range 43.50; VIX: 17.25

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 …Price has slipped below prior low (7132.00) currently testing 7103.75 CD3 Average Violation Level and 7098.25 3 Day Central Pivot. Bulls will need to hold this zone, otherwise further selling pressure may develop.IF successful, THEN main objective is to recover 7132 lost prior low.

CD3 Range High = 7147.50         CD3 Range Low = 7112.25          CD3 Range Avg = 144.00

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7098, THEN upside targets 7125 – 7132 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 7098, THEN downside targets 7083.50, followed by 7055 CD3 Violation Level.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7258.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7001.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 6992.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7098.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 71.25; 10 Day Average True Range: 165.00; VIX: 17.25

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN