Following a pretty sluggish November (major U.S. indices were flat for the month despite volatile swings), traders are determining where the markets will go to close out the year. Major events this week, including a crucial ECB meeting, speeches from Janet Yellen, OPEC’s conference in Vienna and the November jobs report, will likely give clues about that direction. More than a half-dozen Fed officials are also scheduled to speak over the next few days, which may provide further hints about upcoming U.S. monetary policy. (Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Gallup US ECI
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
12:45 PM Fed’s Evans: U.S. Economy
Failure to expand above CD1 High (2096.00) set in motion progressive selling throughout Monday’s Session which pushed price lower to test 2078 Key SPOT, as month-end MOC Sell Imbalances added to additional pressure by settlement.
Overnight trade has price rebounding back up to 2091.50 SPOT where sellers absorbed buying…Currently price holding about midpoint of overnight range at 2086.00 Central Pivot.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…NEUTRAL…IFFY…Price is above Cycle Day 1 Low (2081.50)…All that is needed for Positive 3 Day Cycle is to hold above this level during cash session. Price remains in a larger consolidation pattern, so the next major directional move is unclear at this juncture.
Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible HOD = 2095.00; Possible LOD = 2078.50.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 2091.50 SPOT, THEN initial upside targets PH (2095.00). Strength above this level expands range to 2098.50 – 2101.00 zone with deep expansion targets to 2104.50. (prior cycle rally target)
Scenario 2: Failure to convert 2091.50 SPOT keeps price locked in “price purgatory”…Key support level is 2083 SPOT…Match with Weekly Pivot…Below this level is 2081.50 – 2078.00 Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS