Upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be critical in setting market expectations for a possible hike to the U.S. benchmark interest rate, which has held near zero since December 2008. Yellen is scheduled to speak today at the Economics Club of Washington at 12:25 p.m. ET, and then testifies tomorrow morning before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee. Also looming large is Friday’s jobs figures, the last big piece of data ahead of the Fed’s December 16 meeting, so today’s ADP payroll report will likewise be important to the markets. (Source: Seeking Alpha)
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 Productivity and Costs
8:30 Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
9:00 Daniel Tarullo speech
10:30 EIA Petroleum sInventories
12:25 PM Janet Yellen speech
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
3:40 PM Fed’s Williams: Economic Outlook
Prices held firm throughout yesterday’s session as Key Support 2083 SPOT provided a solid launching pad for late day rally which achieved Positive 3 Day Rally Target (2104.50).
Today begins new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Average Decline = 20.00; Possible HOD = 2105.75; Possible LOD = 2090.00.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2101.50), THEN initial upside targets 2106.25…Strength above this level expands range with upper objective of 2108.50 – 2110.50 Penetration Zone.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2101.50) and subsequent violation of 2098.00 sets in motion this cycle’s decline, initially targeting 2095.50 SPOT, followed by 2092.50. Key Support marked at 2091.50 – 2089.25 3D CPZ.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS