World shares started the week strongly on Monday, buoyed by Friday’s big gains on Wall Street, after upbeat jobs data bolstered investor confidence in the U.S. economy. The sturdy employment report likely means a green light for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week, marking the first increase in nearly a decade. The news is also having a big effect on the currency markets, boosting the greenback against most of its peers. U.S. Dollar Index +0.5% to 98.77.
Crude prices fell again in the first trading session after OPEC members failed to agree on output targets – worsened by deep regional differences between Saudi Arabia and Iran – to reduce an oil glut that has cut prices by more than 60% since June 2014. Abandoning an official output ceiling effectively codifies what OPEC has already done for the past year: ignore its previous target of 30M barrels a day. The cartel produced 31.38M bpd in October. Indonesia also rejoined OPEC on Friday (after being inactive since 2008), boosting the group’s membership to 13 members. Crude futures -1.4% to $39.43/bbl. (Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
10:00 Labor market condition index
11:30 Fed’s Bullard: U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
12:30 PM TD Ameritrade IMX
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
Price rallied sharply on Friday reversing the equally sharp sell-off of mid-week, as NFP Report appeared strong enough for scheduled December interest rate hike at next Fed Meeting on 16th. Santa Claus rally and new yearly highs may be right around the trading corner.
Today begins a new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Residual bullish momentum may keep a bid before this cycle decline begins…Today’s upside extension objective is 2104.50 and down Average Cycle Range Decline is measured at 2071.50.
Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Average Decline = 21.50; Possible LOD = 2104.50; Possible LOD = 2071.50.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2093.00), THEN upside objective measures 2104.50.
Scenario 2: IF price fails to convert PH (2093.00) and subsequently violates and converts 2086.50, THEN this opens door for pullback with first objective to 2083.40 (prior weekly pivot). Below this level targets 2076.00 Central Pivot, followed by 2071.50 SPOT Average Cycle Decline.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS