Financial markets are starting the month on uncertain footing following a dramatic November that featured a U.S. election, OPEC meeting and anticipation of Italy’s upcoming referendum. Despite surging oil prices, U.S. futures are following yesterday’s slight decline on Wall Street, while the dollar retreats from a nine-month high. The fixed income outlook today isn’t looking great either, with European sovereign debt looking vulnerable and Treasuries still under pressure from the administration change.
In Asia, Japan +1.1%. Hong Kong +0.4%. China +0.7%. India -0.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.1%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude +1.2% to $50.04. Gold -0.3% to $1170.30.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 2.41%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Chain Store Sales
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Gallup Good Jobs Rate
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Failed upside breakout resulted in a “key reversal day” as prices progressively auctioned lower all session, capping off with $1.4B Market On Close Sell Imbalance.
Today begins new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for decline which began in prior session and continues in overnight trade, as price is currently trading below 2197.50 prior low. Average Decline targets 2190.50 ATR Range Low Projection.
Range Projections and Key Levels
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price is currently below PL (2197.50)…Bulls will need to recapture this level and convert 2202 to upper support for a reversal rally. Larger resistance now has formed between 2203 – 2206 zone.
Scenario 2: Bears will want to keep price below PL (2197.50) to force long liquidation…IF this occurs, THEN initial downside targets 2193 – 2190.50 zone. Further weakness measures 2185 – 2183 extremes.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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