Trade Strategy 12.15.16

Markets

Crude oil prices are recovering from their slide after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates yesterday. A stronger U.S. dollar is seen as a possible concern on demand. Investors expect a tight market in 2017 on their faith in the OPEC and non-OPEC production cut deals. WTI crude oil futures +0.55% to $51.32/bbl at last check. Brent crude +0.98% to $54.43/bbl.

In Asia, Japan +0.1% to 19,274. Hong Kong -1.77% to 22,059. China -2.2% to 10,097. India -0.3% to 26,519.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris +0.7%. Frankfurt +0.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.6%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +0.6% to $51.30. Gold -2.7% to $1132.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +11 bps to 2.63%

 (Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 Current Account
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

PTG Trading

Prior session was text book Cycle Day 1 (CD1) with test/failure of CD3 high with violation and conversion of 2263 to resistance. This set the stage for normal CD1 Decline courtesy of FED catalyst. Price reach projected lower target 2245.91 outlined in prior DTS 12.14.16.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Initial resistance is now marked at 2258 handle on any bounce as price may retest CD1 Low (2243) for surety. Failure to hold expands downside targeting 2238 handle.

Range Projections and Key Levels

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2266.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2239.75; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2243.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2257.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2264.50; 10 Day Average True Range: 18.00

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: March 2017 (H) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price will need to hold above CD1 Low (2243.00) and convert 2258 to upper support for relief rally to unfold. IF this occurs, THEN 2264 – 2266 zone is target.

Scenario 2: Price has bounced in overnight trade to 2257 – 2258 (3D CPZ) which is marked as resistance. Failure to convert opens door to test 2243.00 (CD1 Low) for surety. Failure for buyers to respond sufficiently expands range lower targeting 2238 handle.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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