The day we’ve all been waiting for has finally arrived. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates when its two-day policy meeting concludes later today, marking the end of a decade of near zero interest rates. But how much and how fast could the Fed raise rates in the coming months? The answer to that question is likely to come from the triple-dose of news the central bank will issue this afternoon – a policy statement, economic forecasts and a news conference by Chair Janet Yellen. Stocks are green across the globe ahead of the big decision. (Source: Seeking Alpha)
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Housing Starts
9:15 Industrial Production
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM FOMC Forecast
2:00 PM Chairman Press Conference
Markets continued to rally from secure low (1991.00) and negated the prior failed 3 Day Rally. Price comfortably reached and exceeded key target of 2035.75 during Cash Session and has extended higher in overnight trade to 2049 – 2053 STATX Zone. The rally is already in place which could make for a confused day.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NEUTRAL SPILL…Odds of Rally > 10 = 84%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.75; Possible HOD = 2054.00 CD2 Average Penetration Level; Possible LOD = 2018 3 Day Central Pivot.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2045.75), THEN extension target is 2050.00 SPOT…Above this level measures 2054.00, with extreme target 2068.50.
Scenario 2: IF price fails to convert PH (2045.75), THEN expectation is for price consolidation in advance of Fed Decision. Levels to be mindful of on pullbacks are: 2034.00 – 2028.00 Central Pivot Zone. Below this zone is 2023.00 SPOT, followed by 2018.00 3D CPZ.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS