So goes Crude Oil…So goes S&P…That’s the current relationship…As CL rallied yesterday, ES followed close behind to reach our target zone near 2010 handle Trade Strategy 12.16.14. Later in the session CL retreated into a lower trade zone as ES sold off hard into settlement as there was a MOC Sell Imbalance. Already vulnerable, price settled near low of day. Whether or not this is final flush out is yet to be determined as price has not been able to stabilize within an acceptable zone where bulls and bears agree on price.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 44%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2022.25; Possible Low = 1938 based upon range parameters.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Scenario 1: Price will need to stabilize above Cycle Day 1 Low (1961.50)…Should buyers become aggressive and in sufficient quantity, then initial target is the CPZ (1979.75)…Clear and conversion of this level targets 1983 – 85 zone…Above this zone measures 3D CPZ 1990.75 then TargetMaster Breakout Level 1995.75.
Scenario 2: Violation of Cycle Day 1 Low (1961.60) forces yet more long liquidation…Lower targets to be mindful of are: 1957 – 1955.00 zone…1950.50 – 1947.50..Extremes measuring 1942.75 – 1938.00 projected low.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
I think in terms of probabilities. I do not know, all I have are probabilities. Probabilities are at the core of my decisions. Through consistent application of the probabilities, I will win.