Although stocks fell Thursday and declined again Monday, equities look likely to open today’s session with gains, suggesting a so-called Santa Claus rally may still be in the cards. The rally is the tendency for stocks to rise over the last five trading sessions of December and the first two sessions of January. Three new reports this morning will also indicate how the U.S. economy performed in the final months of 2015, including international trade data, S&P/Case-Shiller home prices and the consumer confidence index. U.S. futures: Dow +0.5%, S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.5% (Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 International trade in goods
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
1:00 PM Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction
As noted in prior DTS Briefing 12.28.15, this Cycle’s Decline began, as price reached 2037.75 lower range projected target. Bulls regained full control as by settlement had auctioned price back to settle (2049.25) near high of session. Overnight trade price has extended gains 10 handles higher to 2059.75.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2054.50) THEN initial upside objective is 2058.50, followed by 2061.00, 2065.00, then 2066.50 Target Master Range Breakout Level.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2054.50) increases odds (83%) of decline back into prior days range…Levels to be mindful of for renewed support are: 2052.50, 2050.25 – 2047.75 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. Key Line in Sand is marked at 2046.50 YELL.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS