Trade Strategy 12.3.18

Markets
 
Stock markets around the world are in rally mode, posting big gains following a truce in the trade spat between the U.S. and China. President Trump agreed to postpone an increase in the tariff rate on $200B worth of Chinese imports to 25% (from 10%) that was scheduled for Jan. 1, while China will resume purchases of some U.S. farm, energy and industrial commodities.
 
In Asia, Japan +1%. Hong Kong +2.6%. China +2.6%. India +0.1%
In Europe, at midday, London +2%. Paris +1.3%. Frankfurt +2.4%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +1.8%. S&P +1.6%. Nasdaq +2.3%. Crude +4.1% to $53.01. Gold +0.7% to $1234.30. Bitcoin -3% to $3966. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 3.03%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

9:15 Fed’s Williams: “Evolving Structure of the U.S. Treasury Market”
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 Fed’s Reserve Gov. Lael Bralnard: “Evolving Structure of the U.S. Treasury Market”
1:00 PM Fed’s Kaplan Speech

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link Click this link to view:
 

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2721.00. Average Range for CD1 is 43.75 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 20 = 42%

CD1 Range High = 2816.25       CD1 Range Low = 2790.75         CD1 Range Avg = 43.75 

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2803, THEN upside targets retest of overnight high (2814.00).

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2803,THEN downside targets retest of overnight low (2793.00).

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2831.25; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2775.68; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2738.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2820.00; 10 Day Average True Range 38.00; VIX: 16.50

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 6808.00. Average Range for CD1 is 161.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 25 = 64%

CD1 Range High = 7202.00          CD1 Range Low = 7085.75          CD1 Range Avg = 161.00

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7090, THEN upside targets retest of overnight high (7139.00).

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 7090,THEN downside targets retest of overnight low (7041.00).

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7172.25; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7007.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6894.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7106.50; 10 Day Average True Range: 131.00; VIX: 16.50

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN