Price probed lower in prior session to find support at the 3D CPZ laid out in prior Trade Strategy 12.4.14. Normally this probing occurs on CD1, but as we have stated, this Cycle may be disrupted because of last week’s holiday. Scenario 2 played out as scripted, with expectation of “back n fill” price action which normally occurs on Cycle Day 2.
This cycle continues to exhibit strong underlying dynamics, as price consolidates near all-time highs…It would take a violation of 2048 handle and sustained trade below that level to shift the current dynamics. Probabilities favor an upside resolution once supply has been absorbed. Today is Non-Farm Payroll Report, which may be a catalyst for the next move.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Range = 21.25; Possible High = 2088 – 2090.50 based upon expansion above CD2 high; Possible Low = 2047.50 – 2050.75 based upon violation of CD2 low.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PDH (2077.15) THEN there is a 60% chance of reaching 2078 – 2080 STATX Zone…Above this zone is Range Breakout Target 2083.00, with additional measured levels between 2085 – 2090.50.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (2077.25) calls for pullback to retest lower support levels between 2066 – 2069…Violation below 2065 targets prior low 2061.25…with deep expansion targets measuring 2051 – 2047.50.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
I will identify my mistakes and learn from them. I am optimistic, realistic and honest. I will not make up stories about the good or bad things that occurred in the past or are happening now. I admit when something is not working. My optimism gives me faith and courage. I will not fall prey to blame and fear.