Trade Strategy 2.10.16

Posted on by February 10, 2016
Markets
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is set to deliver her semi-annual monetary policy testimony in Washington today in what will be her first major appearance of the year and since the Fed’s controversial rate hike last December. The meeting will give the best insight to date on whether the central bank feels it can proceed with a rate tightening cycle or will be waylaid by problems, including financial market volatility, the oil rout, slumping Chinese growth and weakness in the global economy.
In Asia, Japan -2.3% to 15713. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India -1.1% to 23759.
In Europe, at midday, London +1%. Paris +2.3%. Frankfurt +2.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.7%. S&P +0.9%. Nasdaq +1.3%. Crude +2.4% to $28.60. Gold -1.1% to $1184.90.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.75%
 (Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Yellen delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $23B, 10-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Budget

PTG Trading

Bulls strongly and successfully defended 1830.00 SPOT on retest in prior session, setting up current rally underway in overnight trade. Price has now cleared and converted prior Cycle Day 1 Low (1865.75) which is 1st objective. Next zone of importance is 1878.50 – 1883.50.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Secure low is now in-place (1830.00)…It has setup the next rally swing currently under way…Bulls will need to keep price above 1858.00 and clear 1883.50 to turn the tide bullish.

Range Projections and Key Levels:

HOD Range Projection = 1878.50; LOD Range Projection = 1840.50; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 1800.00; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 1874.50; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1865.75; 3 Day Central Pivot = 1860.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 1904.50; 10 Day Average True Range = 40.00.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (1863.75), THEN odds favor range expansion targeting 1874.50, then 1878.50. Further strength targets 1883.50 SPOT.

Scenario 2: Currently price is trading above PH (1863.75)…Violation and conversion of this level opens door to pullback targeting 1858.00…Below this level pushes price down to 1850.00, then 1845 Central Pivot.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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