Trade Strategy 2.11.16

Posted on by February 11, 2016
Markets
Fresh tremors are hitting global markets as a cautious tone from the Federal Reserve and another fall in crude prices fuel anxiety about the world economy. “Financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday, highlighting risks that could delay the central bank’s plans for raising rates. So what’s happening out there? Investors are piling into safe havens such as gold and government bonds, while dumping U.S. dollars and selling equities. Yellen also returns to Capitol Hill this morning for a second day of testimony.
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -3.9% to 18546. China closed. India -3.4% to 22952.
In Europe, at midday, London -2.3%. Paris -3.4%. Frankfurt -2.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -1.8%. S&P -1.8%. Nasdaq -2%. Crude -3.6% to $26.46. Gold +2.7% to $1226.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -8 bps to 1.62%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Yellen delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Results of $15B, 30-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

PTG Trading

Yesterday’s early rally which came within 3 tics of projected HOD (1878.50) faded, consolidated midday and by settlement sold-off to close very weak. In overnight trade selling has continued unabated to push lower reaching 1808.55, which is today’s LOD Range Projection.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NEUTRAL DOWN…With Crude Oil at fresh contract lows (26.22) and equities not being able to hold bid, more long-liquidation and margin selling could be on tap for today. Until there is evidence of stabilization, any and all rallies are considered selling opportunities, as “risk-off” is name of game. Gold and Bonds have seen appreciation as they are considered “safe-haven” places for investors monies.

Range Projections and Key Levels:

HOD Range Projection = 1847.45; LOD Range Projection = 1808.55; CD2 Maximum Violation Level = 1814.75; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 1888.50; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1838.50; 3 Day Central Pivot = 1850.25; 3 Day Cycle Target = 1904.50; 10 Day Average True Range = 38.70.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is currently near LOD Range Projection of 1808.55…Price will need to hold at or above this level, then clear and convert 1818.50 to have any chance of rallying to 1st objective of 1838.50 (CD1 Low). Above this level targets 1847.45 – 1850.25 zone.

Scenario 2: Failure to rally during cash session above 1818.50 keeps pressure for additional margin selling..Price has already reached 1808.55 LOD Range Projection…Break further below this level targets 1802.75 – 1798.00, with deep STATX Xtreme measuring 1789.25

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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