Trade Strategy 2.12.20

Markets

In Asia, Japan +0.7%. Hong Kong +0.9%. China +0.9%. India +0.9%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude +1.4% to $50.65. Gold -0.1% to $1568.80 Bitcoin +5.2% to $10278.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 1.62%

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/

Economic Calendar

10:00 Powell to testify before the house financial services committee
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $27B, 10-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Budget

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…PTG Daily Trade Strategy (2.11.20) we wrote: “Price closed last and in upper quartile of session range with strong momentum. Expectation is for continuation of this momentum until CD1 Penetration Zone is fulfilled which has occurred during overnight trade.” Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 3360, THEN initial upside targets 3365 – 3368 zone.”

Price in-fact fulfilled the initial target zone and climbed higher to 3373 Standard Deviation Extreme Target, at which time the Cycle Day 1 Decline began.

This leads us into today’s Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Part of the decline from extreme high is in place, therefore normal for CD2 would be for some “back n fill” consolidative price action holding above CD1 Low (3349.25).

Larger degree uptrend remains in-effect and should price convert 3365 handle, Bulls can re-assert momentum to retest all-time highs.

IF price violates and converts CD1 Low (3349.25), THEN some cracks would develop with expected deeper pullback in search of renewed buy interest.

CD2 Range High = 3380.00       CD2 Range Low = 3349.00         CD2 Range Avg = 27.50

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 3365, THEN initial upside targets 3375 – 3380 zone

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 3365, THEN initial downside targets 3360 – 3355 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2020 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3388.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3340.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3343.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3378.00; 10 Day Average True Range 33.26; VIX: 14.67

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD1)…Price has held above prior two settlements as buyers renewed interest overnight pushing price higher to top end of value zone. Expectation for today would be for normal “back n fill” price action with an upside bias as long as prior settlements hold any retest.

CD2 Range High = 9585.00           CD2 Range Low = 9524.00          CD2 Range Avg = 101.00

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 9568, THEN initial upside targets 9575 – 9585 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 9568, THEN initial downside targets 9556 – 9536 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2020 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 9652.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 9455.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 9476.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 9575.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 129.00; VIX: 14.67

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN