The hot seat could be a bit more fiery than usual when Janet Yellen begins her semi-annual Congressional testimony at 10:00 a.m. ET. The Fed Chair is expected to defend the post-crisis banking rules President Trump has pledged to undo and investors will be interested to see if her economic outlook aligns with his. When it comes to interest rates, Yellen isn’t expected to do much more than repeat the “gradual” pace guidance that was used in the Fed’s last statement.
In Asia, Japan -1.1%. Hong Kong flat. China +0.1%. India flat.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude +0.8% to $53.33. Gold +0.4% to $1230.70.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 2.45%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:30 Producer Price Index
8:50 Fed’s Lacker speech
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 Yellen delivers semi-annual testimony
1:00 PM Fed’s Kaplan: Monetary Policy
Markets continued their low volatility “grind” higher to reach Cycle Range Targets. There has been no room for traders to buy a pullback as rolling shorts continue to “pay the price”. Average True Range continues to contract, currently down to 13.52 handles. VIX closed at 11.11 near the low side of historical range.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for some magnitude decline, bears will be looking for any sign of weakness to reestablish new short positions. Average Decline on CD1 should it unfold measures 2306.90.
Range Projections and Key Levels
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2017 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price converts PH (2329.00), THEN upside expansion measures 2331.00 – 2332.75 STATX Zone. HOD Range Projection measures 2335.77.
Scenario 2: IF price fails to convert PH (2329.00) and subsequently violates 2323.00 Central Pivot, THEN this would be initial sign of weakness. LOD Range Projection measures 2313.98.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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