Trade Strategy 2.14.18

Markets

The inflation boogeyman may be in town today as investors focus on CPI data that could upset the market’s fragile recovery, or clear the way for additional gains. U.S. consumer prices rose 2.1% Y/Y in December and are forecast to stay around the same pace this month.

In Asia, Japan -0.4%. Hong Kong +2.3%. China +0.5%. India -0.4%
In Europe, at midday, London +0.8%. Paris +0.8%. Frankfurt +0.7%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude -0.8% to $58.69. Gold +0.2% to $1333.30. Bitcoin +4.3% to $8885. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.83%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:30 Retail Sales
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

S&P 500 (ES)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price closed strong in prior session which is carrying price higher in overnight trade reaching CD1 Penetration Level (2676.50). price will need to violate and convert PC (2663.75) to increase odds of normal CD1 decline measuring 2632.30.

Scenario 1: IF price converts PH (2667.50), THE initial upside targets 2676.50 followed by 2690 – 95 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price converts PC (2663.75) to resistance, THEN deeper downside initially target 2658 handle. Should this level falter, prior VWAP (2651.50) come into play.

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2724.04; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2614.46; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2530.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2633.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2566.75; 10 Day Average True Range 63.04; VIX: 23.41

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Rally continued into overnight session fulfilled CD1 Penetration Zone (6588 – 6593). Bulls will need to convert this zone to solid support to expand higher targeting 6635 VPOC.

Scenario 1: IF price converts PH (6571), THEN initial upside targets 6588 – 93 CD1 Penetration Zone.

Scenario 2: IF price converts PC (6561.50) to resistance, THEN downside initially targets 6528 – 25 VWAP, followed by 6475 .50 CD1 average decline.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ)

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 6727.55; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6426.95; Cycle Day 1 Low: 6164.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6461.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 6259.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 175.55; VIX: 23.41

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN