Trade Strategy 2.14.20

Markets

Nasdaq futures increased 0.27%, S&P futures inched up 0.14% and Dow futures are basically flat as investors continue to sort through data on how the coronavirus outbreak is spreading. In Asia, the major markets except for Tokyo and Mumbai rose. In Europe, the FTSE 100 is down 0.3%, Stoxx Europe 600 has slipped 0.1% and the DAX is roughly flat. Crude oil is up 1.3% to $52.10, while gold and the U.S. Dollar Index are all little changed.

IEA sees oil demand declining for first time in a decade

The International Energy Agency slashed its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2020 by 365,000 barrels per day to 825,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since 2011, as the coronavirus dampens demand in China’s oil-hungry economy. In its latest monthly outlook, the IEA sees global oil demand shrinking by 435,000 barrels per day in Q1, which would be the first quarterly contraction since the global financial crisis in 2009.

In Asia, Japan -0.59%. Hong Kong +0.31%. China +0.38%. India -0.50%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.08%. Paris -0.18%. Frankfurt +0.13%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.06%. S&P +0.14%. Nasdaq +0.27%. Crude +1.23% to $52.05. Gold +0.03% to $1,579.20. Bitcoin +0.63% to $10,222.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2.2 bps to 1.595%.

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/

Economic Calendar

8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Import/Export Prices
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Today begins a new Cycle Day 1 (CD1), Normal is for a decline with the Average Decline measuring 3355. Average Range recorded over 20 Cycles is 31.75 handles. Odds of Decline > 10 = 73%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 44%

CD1 Range High = 3396.50       CD1 Range Low = 3364.00         CD1 Range Avg = 31.75

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 3385, THEN initial upside targets 3394 – 3396 zone

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 3385, THEN initial downside targets 3378 – 3373 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2020 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3402.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3358.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3368.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3400.00; 10 Day Average True Range 30.41; VIX: 13.94

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 9544.50. Average Range for CD1 is 114.50 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 75% Odds of decline > 25 = 67%

CD1 Range High = 9660.00           CD1 Range Low = 9600.00          CD1 Range Avg = 114.50

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 9645, THEN initial upside targets 9660 – 9667 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 9645, THEN initial downside targets 9636 – 9625 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2020 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 9720.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 9539.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 9578.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 9675.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 120.00; VIX: 13.94

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN