Trade Strategy 2.23.21

Markets

Nasdaq set to continue losing streak

The tech sector looks poised for another down day, fueled by fears about inflation and rising long-term interest rates. That could lower the present value of future earnings and undercut arguments for elevated valuations of high-growth tech stocks. The Nasdaq slumped 2.5% on Monday, while future contracts linked to the index fell another 1.5% overnight. In fact, the Nasdaq 100 has dropped 4.2% over the last five days, the longest consecutive streak of losses since Oct. 19.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 PM Powell Testifies on Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report
1:00 PM Results of $60B, 2-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price failed to push higher, continuing its down slide. Recent bearish shift under the 3 Day Central Pivot Zone marked the beginning of this current decline. Range was 53 handles on 1.474M contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Momentum has carried over overnight, pushing price lower fulfilling 3642 CD1 Violation Level. Price has since bounced back during pre-RTH to prior low (3861.25) As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 3861, initially targets 3871 – 3877 zone.

2.) Price sustains an offer below 3861, initially targets 3845 – 3840 zone.

*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

PVA High Edge = 3885       PVA Low Edge = 3872         Prior POC = 3875

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2021 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3872; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3863; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3900; 10 Day Average True Range  33; VIX: 24

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price has continued its decline fulfilling CD1 Violation Low (12998) . Prior Range was 414 handles on 633k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

PVA High Edge = 13428       PVA Low Edge = 13288      Prior POC = 13338

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13043, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13107 – 13175 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13043, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13998 – 13947 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2021 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 13130; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13152; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13526; 10 Day Average True Range: 183; VIX: 24

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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