Trade Strategy 2.27.18

Markets
 
In Asia, Japan +1.1%. Hong Kong -0.7%. China -1.1%. India -0.3%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris flat. Frankfurt -0.6%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude -0.4% to $63.65. Gold +0.1% to $1334.30. Bitcoin +4% to $10720. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 2.87%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar

8:30 Powell to release semiannual monetary policy statement
8:30 Durable Goods
8:30 International trade in goods
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 Powell to testify before the House of Representatives’ Committee
3:00 PM Farm Prices

S&P 500 (ES)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2745.56. Average Range for CD1 is 38 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 71% Odds of decline > 20 = 41%

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2787.00), THEN upside targets 2797 – 2800 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price remains below PC (2784.00), THEN downside measures 2777…2766-64 zone.

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2816.13; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2745.37; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2719.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2738.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2829.75; 10 Day Average True Range 41.63; VIX: 16.13

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 6898.21. Average Range for CD1 is 107 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 25 = 63%

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (7007.50), THEN upside targets 7025.50 – 7040.50 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price remains below PC (7003.50), THEN downside measures 6960 – 6930 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ)

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7094.60; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6891.65; Cycle Day 1 Low: 6758.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7001.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7129.20; 10 Day Average True Range: 117.35; VIX: 16.13

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN