Shares across the globe are on the retreat after a weekend meeting of G20 finance chiefs ended without a plan to spur global growth, while investors fretted over renewed expectations for another Fed rate hike. U.S. economic data published on Friday showed solid consumer spending and underlying inflation picking up in January, while GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised higher to a 1% annual rate. As February draws to a close: The S&P is slightly positive, the Dow is up 1%, and the Nasdaq is still negative.
In Asia, Japan -1% to 16027. Hong Kong -1.3% to 19112. China -2.9% to 2688. India -0.7% to 23002.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -1.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.7%. Crude -0.2% to $32.72. Gold +1.2% to $1235.30.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.74%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
3:00 Farm Prices
The current 3 Day Cycle Structure has been working nicely as price range projections have been achieved on a daily basis…For example, last Thursday;s expected spill was up with target of 1969.00…actual high it 1968.75…Coming into last Friday’s trade session expected spill was down with low of day target at 1940.73. Actual low was 1941.75. This high degree of accuracy can increase a traders confidence executing their trade plan for the day by providing a needed probability edge.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NORMAL NEUTRAL / UP…Price is currently trading below CD1 Low in overnight trade…Odds (84%) remain strong that price can rebound back above this level during Cash Session. Key support zone is marked between 1920 – 1925 handles. Current Average True Range is 26.02 and continues to contract…This support the Bulls.
Range Projections and Key Levels:
HOD Range Projection = 1953.77; LOD Range Projection = 1920.98; CD2 Maximum Penetration Level = 1978.71; CD2 Maximum Violation Level = 1915.57; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1941.75; 3 Day Central Pivot = 1936.25; 3 Day Cycle Target = 1973.50; 10 Day Average True Range = 26.02.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price can stabilize about 1925 handle, THEN initial objective is to recapture 1941.75 CD1 Low, which would place price back within prior day’s range…Next target is 1950.50 – 1955 retracement zone. Above this zone measures retesting prior high.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert 1941.75 CD1 Low places pressures on open long positions. Subsequent violation and conversion of ONL (1927.75) opens door to extend lower to 1920 handle.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS