Trade Strategy 3.1.18

Markets
 
S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq futures were all drifting lower this morning after two days of losses, which came amid uncertainty around what moves the market can expect from the Fed. Wednesday’s slide snapped the Dow and S&P 500’s 10-month winning streaks, and all three major indices posted big declines for February. Later today, traders will have more economic data to work with as they find their footing, including the ISM Manufacturing Index, which is expected to slip to 58.6 from the prior 59.1; the Manufacturing PMI; construction spending; and personal income and outlays.
 
In Asia, Japan -1.56%. Hong Kong +0.65%. China +0.44%. India -0.40%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.50%. Paris -0.92%. Frankfurt -1.44%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.16%. S&P -0.10%. Nasdaq -0.02%. Crude -0.57%to $61.30. Gold -0.49% to $1,311.50. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 2.842%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar

8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Yellen delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

S&P 500 (ES)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Early rally attempt failed at 2761 resistance, reversed and sold-off fulfilling downside low-of-day range objective 2712 as outlined in DTS Briefing 2.28.18

In overnight trade price has continued trading lower to CD3 Violation Level (2700.80).

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PC (2718.75), THEN initial upside objective targets 2730 – 32 zone, followed by CD1 Low (2742.00).

Scenario 2: IF price violates PL (2712.00), THEN initial downside targets 2700 CD3 Violation Level, followed by 2690 – 88 range low zone.

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2741.58; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2678.92; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2742.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2754.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2768.21; 10 Day Average True Range 43.58; VIX: 20.83

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3),,,In overnight trade price has extended lower fulfilling 6832.65 CD3 Violation Level. 

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PC (6879.75), THEN initial objective is to recover CD1 Low (6904.00). 

Scenario 2: IF price continues to trade below 6832, THEN downside expansion targets 6795 handle.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ)

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 6937.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6784.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 6904.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6937.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 6963.19; 10 Day Average True Range: 113.96; VIX: 20.83

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN