Stocks set the stage to open higher following the S&P 500’s worst day since the financial crisis after President Trump said he’ll discuss a payroll tax cut with Congress and that he’s considering other relief measures. S&P futures are up 4.5%, the Dow futures rose 4.4%, and Nasdaq futures are up 4.6%.
Treasurys retraced some of yesterday’s surge as 10-year yield added 22 basis points to 0.715%. Crude oil rose 7.4% to $33.42 per barrel.
Volatility, though, hasn’t disappeared — the Cboe Volatility Index is up 18% to 49.65. In overseas markets, Asia equities markets closed higher and Europe stock averages gained in morning trading.
In Asia, Japan +0.85%. Hong Kong +1.4%. China +1.8%. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London +3.65%. Paris +4.11%. Frankfurt +3.48%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +4.4%. S&P +4.5%. Nasdaq +4.6%. Crude +7.4% to $33.42. Gold -0.95% to $1,659.70. Bitcoin -0.1% to $7,928.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +21.7bps to 0.715%.
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price across indexes notched historic one-day declines as table displays below:
This leads into today as Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Overnight trade action price tested CD2 Violation Zone between 2696 – 2703 as buyers responded aggressively rallying 182 handles, matching the 5-day ATR Range Projection. Bulls need to recover the Cycle Day 1 Low (2898) to secure Positive 3 Day Cycle Statistic.
EVERYTHING CAN HAPPEN SO NOTHING IS A SURPRISE…BE PREPARED!
We’ll cautiously keep the “HIGH SURF WARNING FLAG” posted as volatility remains elevated, with VIX 45 and ATR (5) 182 handles.
****IMPORTANT >>> IF preset $risk parameters have been exceeded in your individual trade plan, THEN simply stand-aside or trade in simulation-mode until trade risk can properly be managed.
PVA High Edge = 2833 PVA Low Edge = 2754 Prior POC = 2818
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 2833, THEN initial upside estimate targets 2868 – 2898 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 2833, THEN initial downside estimate targets 2818 – 2792 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2020 (H) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Overnight trade action price tested prior low (7820) and found no new selling, as buyers responded aggressively rallying 526 handles, matching the 3-day ATR Range Projection. Bulls have successfully recovered the Cycle Day 1 Low (8310.50) securing Positive 3 Day Cycle Statistic.
PVA High Edge = 8162 PVA Low Edge = 7995 Prior POC = 8094
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 8255, THEN initial upside estimate targets 8310 – 8340 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 8255, THEN initial downside estimate targets 8226 – 8182 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2020 (H) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN