Following Monday’s plunge and Tuesday’s rally, U.S. futures fell another 2% overnight as traders sized up fiscal and monetary policy responses.
Saudi Aramco (ARMCO) has received a directive from the kingdom’s energy ministry to up its output capacity to 13M barrels a day. On Tuesday, the company said it would raise its crude supply to 12.3M barrels per day starting April 1, only days after it slashed most of its official selling prices. Crude futures slipped 2.4% on the news to $33.54/bbl, following a 24% plunge on Monday
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
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Historic decline pushing indexes Limit Down greater than 5% was one for the record books, even for the most seasoned trader, like me (36 yrs). ALGO’s did all the work unlike the manual trading that took place during October 19th Black Monday. Yes, I was there as an apprentice trader…You could say it was a “rite-of-passage” in the trading business. I hope if you are reading this commentary and survived unscathed or with some small bumps n bruises is now your “rite-of-passage”. WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE!
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price found solid response at the lower CD3 Violation Zone between 2696 – 2703, as buyers aggressively bid price, rallying 182 handles by Cash Open. Back n Forth action within value ended session by notching new session high.
This leads us into today’s Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal for CD1 is some magnitude decline (that’s an understatement!), but given the bullish momentum into the close, expectation favors continuation, but not ruling out some “back n fill” price action. Bulls MUST recover 2898 handle sometime during session to negate “failed cycle”…Nasdaq (NQ) was successful in fulfilling Positive 3 Day Cycle, so now it’s “Job-One” for S&P (ES)
Overseas Markets are currently trading in positive territory, while US Markets are bracing for a minus 2.6% opening bell. VIX = 52.60
We’ll keep the “High Surf Warning” for today’s session.
P-VA High = 2823 P-VA Low = 2750 P-POC = 2785
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 2805, THEN initial upside estimate targets 2814 – 2824 zone
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 2805, THEN initial downside estimate targets 2785 – 2775 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2020 (H) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price is currently trading back into prior Midpoint as prior session’s rally appears to have faded. Nornal Cycle Day 1 decline projections have been fulfilled. As such traders will be looking for stabilization within current range >> 8000 – 8200 Yes! 200 handles.
P-VA High = 8198 P-VA Low = 8008 P-POC = 8095
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 8147, THEN initial upside estimate targets 8196 – 8240 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 8147, THEN initial downside estimate targets 8095 – 8045 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2020 (H) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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