Trade Strategy 3.12.18

Markets
 
Shares across the globe are starting the week with a bounce after a strong U.S. jobs report seemed to erase any potential concerns investors may have had about a looming trade war or inflation. Friday also marked the nine-year anniversary of the current bull market for U.S. stocks, which have logged more than 108 months without posting a decline of 20% that marks a retreat into bear territory.
 
In Asia, Japan +1.8%. Hong Kong +1.9%. China +0.6%. India +1.8%
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.8%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.6%. Crude -0.5% to $61.71. Gold -0.5% to $1317.90. Bitcoin +3.1% to $9827. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.89%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar

11:30 Results of $28B, 3-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Results of $21B, 10-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Budget

S&P 500 (ES)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2746.50.. Average Range for CD1 is 41.61 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 71% Odds of decline > 20 = 41% Possible Range Low = 2782.75.

Scenario 1: IF price holds above PC (2788.25), THEN initial target 2804.50 CD1 Penetration Level, followed by 2810.57.

Scenario 2: IF price violates PC (2788.25), THEN initial downside targets 2782.75, followed by 2775 handle.

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2828.63; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2764.75; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2647.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2742.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2852.50; 10 Day Average True Range 39.72; VIX: 15.47

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7009.75. Average Range for CD1 is 114.81 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 25 = 63% Possible Range Low = 7062.19.

Scenario 1: IF price holds above PC (7124.00), THEN initial target 7169.50 CD1 Penetration Level, followed by 7185.00.

Scenario 2: IF price violates PC (7124.00), THEN initial downside targets 7100.00, followed by 7062.00 handle.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ)

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7236.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7066.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 6646.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6991.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7301.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 110.68; VIX: 15.47

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN