Trade Strategy 3.13.18

Markets
 
The consumer price index will likely be a sleeper for investors today, but if it’s not, interest rates could spike and equities might sell off. It’s expected to come in at 0.2% M/M for both headline inflation and core, which excludes energy and food, or 2.2% and 1.9% Y/Y. A CPI figure that misses or meets estimates is likely to reaffirm the case for just three rate hikes in 2018, but rising inflation could get the Fed, which meets next week, to change its forecasts.
 
In Asia, Japan +0.7%. Hong Kong flat. China -0.5%. India -0.2%
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.2%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +0.3% to $61.54. Gold -0.2% to $1318.60. Bitcoin -1% to $9021. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 2.88%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar

6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
1:00 PM Results of $13B, 30-Year Note Auction

S&P 500 (ES)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Average Range on CD2 is 36 handles. Support is marked at 2785. Cycle Day 1 Low appears to be secure; as such the rally may unfold targeting 2810 3 Day Rally Target.

Scenario 1: IF price holds above PC (2788.25) and converts 2796 to upper support, THEN initial target measure 2800 – 2805 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts PC (2788.25) to lower resistance, THEN rest of CD1 Low (2783.75) for surety is expected.

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2822.85; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2759.40; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2783.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2767.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2810.00; 10 Day Average True Range 35.86; VIX: 15.68

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Average Range on CD2 is 105 handles. Support is marked at 7135. Cycle Day 1 Low (7124.00) appears to be secure; as such the rally may unfold targeting 7183.75 3 Day Rally Target.

Scenario 1: IF price holds above PC (7161.75) and converts 7174 to upper support, THEN initial target measure 7184 – 7192 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts PC (7161.75) to lower resistance, THEN rest of CD1 Low (7124.00) for surety is expected.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ)

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7253.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7075.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7124.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7072.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7184.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 101.70; VIX: 15.68

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN