Trade Strategy 3.16.16

Markets

Global shares are holding steady as markets await the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. While no rate move is expected at the Fed’s gathering, it does include updates of members’ economic projections and a news conference with Chair Janet Yellen, events that have caused violent market reactions in the past. Analysts generally assume Fed projections for interest rates – widely known as the “dots” – will indicate only three hikes this year instead of four. Yet the market is pricing in just one move of 25 basis points for 2016.

In Asia, Japan -0.8% to 16974. Hong Kong -0.2% to 20258. China +0.2% to 2870. India +0.5% to 24682.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris flat. Frankfurt +0.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +2.2% to $37.12. Gold +0.2% to $1233.70.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.96%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:30 Housing Starts
9:15 Industrial Production
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM FOMC Forecast
2:00 PM Chairman Press Conference

PTG Trading

Very quiet trading in prior session as market participants await the FOMC Policy decision release today at 2 pm. Price continues to consolidate recent gains as the 10 day Average True Range is now 21.33 which is closer to its long-term historical average.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NEUTRAL SPILL…Early expectation is for more “wait n see” mode ahead of FED announcement…Current 3 day range is 1995.00 – 2013.00 (June M). Price compression will lead to expansion, so remain patient, disciplined until high quality trade opportunity presents itself.

Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract

HOD Range Projection = 2025.83; LOD Range Projection = 1990.42; CD2 Maximum Penetration Level = 2018.19; CD2 Maximum Violation Level = 1972.48; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1995.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2004.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2026.88; 10 Day Average True Range = 21.33.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2010.00), THEN odds (84%) favor range expansion with initial objective 2018.19, followed by 2025 – 2027 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts PL (1995.00), THEN downside range expansion may unfold, targeting 1990.42, followed by 1985.00 down to 1978.75. Max violation level for CD2 measures 1972.48.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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