U.S. futures are indicating a lower open on Wall Street, despite a dovish statement from the Federal Reserve Wednesday afternoon that boosted stocks and sent the S&P 500 to its highest level of the year. The Fed held rates between 0.25%-0.50% and cut its projection for the number of rate hikes this year from four to two, pointing to “global economic and financial developments” that will keep inflation low for the remainder of 2016. The announcement sent the dollar plummeting, and the currency continued to drop sharply overnight to an almost three-week low against the yen.
In Asia, Japan -0.2% to 16936. Hong Kong +1.2% to 20504. China +1.2% to 2904. India flat at 24677.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -1.9%. Frankfurt -2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.5%. Nasdaq -0.6%. Crude +1.6% to $40.63. Gold +3.3% to $1270.90.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -8 bps to 1.85%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30 Current Account
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
S&P e-mini (ES) rallied in prior session on reaction to FOMC’s slightly dovish pace of interest rate increases. Overnight trade extended to the rally to reach 2026.88 3 Day Cycle Target…At which time price reversed sharply and is now trading 18 handles lower at 2008.00.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…SPILL IFFY/DOWN…Having reached Cycle Target (2026.88) objective, buyers seem to have run out of fuel to continue the auction higher. The new YELL is now 2002.00…Bulls will need to keep price stable above this level for continued drive higher. Key Support Marker is now 1995.00 SPOT. Violation and conversion of this level will unravel the recent multi-day consolidation. Lastly, this week has Quadruple Options Expiring, the ride may be a bit bumpy.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection = 2027.52; LOD Range Projection = 2005.48; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 2031.10; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 1988.69; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1995.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2008.25; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2026.88; 10 Day Average True Range = 21.77.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price will need to stay above 2002.00 (YELL) for the bullish case and clear and convert 2012 SPOT to be able to push higher…Lots of room between 2012 and 2026 for price to freely move to find natural balance levels.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2002.00 (YELL) opens trap door down to retest 1995.00 Cycle Day 1 Low…Selling below this level traps many buyers and could force some long liquidation. CD3 Maximum Violation Level is marked at 1988.69.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS