Crude prices are flirting with new 2016 highs, as U.S. oil heads for a fifth week of gains, marking the longest rising streak in about a year for the benchmark. The run has brought WTI above $40 per barrel, surging more than 50% from 12-year lows in February, on the back of a weaker dollar and growing optimism that major producers will strike a production freeze deal.
In Asia, Japan -1.2% to 16725. Hong Kong +0.8% to 20672. China +1.7% to 2955. India +1.1% to 24953.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.5%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude -0.1% to $40.16. Gold -0.7% to $1255.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 1.87%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Fed’s Bullard: U.S. Monetary and Economic Policy
Early overnight weakness in prior session which found solid support at 3 Day Central Pivot (2004.50) setups continuation rally during cash session, pushing price higher to reach and surpass 2026.88 3 Day Cycle Rally Target. In overnight trade price gains continue to hold with minor support now marked at 2028.25.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Residual bullish momentum may continue to dominate the trading landscape…First sign of weakness would be failure to hold above 2028.25. Today is QUAD Options Expiry so stay focused. Crude continue to roar higher trading at $42 in overnight action.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection = 2049.55; LOD Range Projection = 2014.20; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 2051.28; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 1975.66; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1995.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2013.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2026.88; 10 Day Average True Range = 22.55.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds above 2028.25 and subsequently clears and converts PH (2036.75), THEN expansion upside objective measures 2040.25 – 2044.00 STATX Zone. High of Day Range Projection (2049.55) and CD1 Maximum Penetration Level (2051.28) respectively.
Scenario 2: Initial Sign of Weakness (SOW) would be a violation and conversion of 2028.25 SPOT which targets 2024.75 – 2021.25 zone. Below this zone opens door down to 2016.25 – 2011.25 3 Day Central Pivot Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS