Yesterday turned out to be Super Tuesday for the stock market too, as investors bought equities with gusto. The Dow popped 349 points (+2.1%) for its second best day of the year, the S&P 500 surged 2.4%, while the Nasdaq logged its greatest day of 2016 with a whopping 2.9% gain. Despite the additional certainty from the primaries, traders may have more on their minds than the elections: The U.S. economy is picking up (last month’s manufacturing data, durable goods and auto sales all came in better than expected). It’s more unlikely the Fed will raise interest rates in March (Bill Dudley’s latest speech), and oil prices appear close to a bottom. Although up overnight, U.S futures are now down 0.2%.
In Asia, Japan +4.1% to 16747. Hong Kong +3.1% to 20003. China +4.3% to 2850. India +2% to 24242.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude -2% to $33.71. Gold +0.1% to $1231.90.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.84%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
10:00 Fed’s Williams: Economic Outlook
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
Super Tuesday’s powerful rally capped off a perfect Cycle Day 3 by exceeding Maximum Penetration Levels and hitting 1980.30 3 Day Cycle Rally Target. This major upswing which began on Feb 14th has traveled approximately 144 handles or 8%.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Having reached Cycle Target expectation today will be for a pullback/consolidation type trade to find a new secure albeit higher low support zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels:
HOD Range Projection = 2000.00; LOD Range Projection = 1955.25; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 1997.96; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 1885.50; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1941.75; 3 Day Central Pivot = 1948.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 1980.30; 10 Day Average True Range = 28.75.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price can maintain bid above PH (1978.50), THEN initial objective targets 1988.00 Lower STATX Zone, with 1997 – 2000 Range Targets.
Scenario 2: Failure to hold bid above PH (1978.50), suggest buyers are satisfied with expectation of lower trade to find a new secure low. Level the be mindful of are 1968.25…1966 – 1963 zone, followed by 1959.00 Central Pivot.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS