Just a few days after the FOMC slashed its forecast for the number of rate hikes this year, two Fed speakers suggested the central bank could move as soon as its next meeting. “There is sufficient momentum evidenced by the economic data to justify a further step…as early as the meeting scheduled for the end of April,” said Atlanta Fed boss Dennis Lockhart. “April or June would definitely be potential times to have an increase in interest rates,” added San Francisco Fed President John Williams.
In Asia, Japan +1.9% to 17049. Hong Kong -0.1% to 20667. China -0.6% to 2999. India +0.2% to 25330.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.7%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -0.1% to $41.47. Gold +0.6% to $1251.50.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.90%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
12:30 PM Fed’s Evans speech
6:30 PM Fed’s Harker speech
S&P e-mini (ES) continued to consolidate last weeks gains as volatility and price range continue to contract. Average True Range (10) is now 20.70 and VIX 13.79. Key price support is marked between 2027.00 – 2028.50 Cycle Day 1 Low Zone.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…IFFY SPILL…Price will need to expand above CD2 High (2044.50) to expand upwards…Bears need to kill CD1 Low (2027.00) to force long liquidation.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection = 2049.25; LOD Range Projection = 2024.05; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 2053.37; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 2017.79; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2027.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2033.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2062.28; 10 Day Average True Range = 20.70.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2044.50), THEN upside expansion targets 2046.25 – 2049.25…CD3 Maximum Penetration Level is 2053.37.
Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 2027.00 – 2028.50 Zone (CD1 Low), THEN forced long liquidation may unfold targeting 2025.05, followed by 2022.25 – 2017.75 STATX Zone and CD3 Maximum Violation Level.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS