U.S. futures are hugging the flatline as traders brushed off jitters related to the Brussels attacks and appetite for equities waned ahead of the long Easter weekend. “Generally, the impact of terror attacks has become less and less dramatic after 9/11,” said Bernard Aw, market strategist at IG in Singapore. With few major economic and corporate releases on this week’s agenda, investors expect stocks to remain near their highest levels of 2016, following a five-week rally that helped erase steep losses at the start of the year.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” has been falling sharply as traders anticipate the current rebound could help propel the S&P 500 to close out Q1 on a winning note. The Vix index, a widely followed barometer of implied volatility, hovered below a reading of 14 on Tuesday, near its lowest level since mid-August. The long-term average for Vix is 20, and readings below that level suggest greater optimism among investors.
In Asia, Japan -0.3% to 17001. Hong Kong -0.3% to 20615. China +0.4% to 3010. India flat at 25337.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude -0.8% to $41.14. Gold -1.2% to $1233.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.94%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 New Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $13B, 2-Year FRN Auction
Compression…Compression…Compression…Price range continues to compress, as Ten-Day Average True Range is now 20 handles. Vix Index, which is a measure of implied volatility hovering near 14…This makes for challenging trading for the intra-day trader, as trade opportunities are scarce. With the shortened Easter Holiday week expectation is for more of the same, so keep your trading powder dry…DO NOT force trades that are not cleanly developed.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…With price compressing in a relatively narrow range, any decline may be shallower than the norm. On the flip-side, bulls remain in control, so it could be setup for a “Thin to Win” upside break into the long holiday weekend. Stay vigilant…Do Not become complacent.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection = 2057.75; LOD Range Projection = 2025.25; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 2059.50; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 1998.66; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2027.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2038.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2062.28; 10 Day Average True Range = 20.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 2045.00, THEN initial upside objective is 2049.25 – 2051.25 STATX Zone, followed by 2057.75 – 2062.28 upper target zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS