U.S. averages are set to close out a roller-coaster first quarter at 2016 highs following a big reversal this month that propped up stocks. With Q1 earnings on tap, oil market volatility, interest rate decisions, and global growth worries, traders have a lot on their plate for determining the future path of the market. Bearing that in mind, where are we headed for the rest of 2016?
In Asia, Japan -0.7% to 16758. Hong Kong -0.1% to 20776. China +0.1% to 3004. India flat at 25342.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.7%. Paris -1.3%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude -0.9% to $37.96. Gold +0.6% to $1235.70.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.81%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Gallup Good Jobs Rate
9:30 Fed’s Evans: U.S. Monetary Policy
9:45 Chicago PMI
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 Money Supply
4:30 Fed Balance Sheet
5:00 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
S&P e-mini (ES) hit projected HOD Target of 2064.25 (actual hod 2064.50) in prior session before pulling back into settlement notching a Neutral Day. Key support zone is now marked between 2046 – 2048, as price successfully tested this zone in overnight trade.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently trading 10 handles higher off ONL (2047.25). Economic calendar is filled today as markets await the all important monthly Jobs Report Friday.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection = 2064.98; LOD Range Projection = 2038.52; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 2079.18; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 2036.02; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2019.25; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2041.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2056.68; 10 Day Average True Range = 17.73.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price has successfully PL (2046.75) in overnight trade…This marks structural support now and price will need to clear and convert 2056 handle to push for higher ground targeting PH (2064.50). Further range expansion can occur if 2064.50 is converted targeting 2072.85, then 2079.18.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2046.50) and subsequent violation of 2046.75 opens door to lower prices initially targeting 2044.50 – 2042.75, followed by 2041.50 – 2040.25. LOD Range Projection measures 2038.52 and CD3 Max Violation Level at 2036.02.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS