China’s February trade performance was far worse than economists had expected, days after top leaders at the National People’s Congress sought to reassure investors about the world’s second-largest economy. Exports fell 25.4% from a year earlier, the biggest drop since May 2009, while imports slumped 13.8%, leaving a trade surplus of $32.59B. “It’s easy to blame Chinese New Year distortions, but there is a much deeper malaise that is becoming apparent in the numbers,” said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC.
In Asia, Japan -0.8% to 16783. Hong Kong -0.7% to 20016. China +0.1% to 2901. India +0.1% to 24659.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.8%. Paris +1.4%. Frankfurt +1.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.6%. S&P -0.7%. Nasdaq -0.8%. Crude -0.8% to $37.60. Gold +0.9% to $1275.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -6 bps to 1.84%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
1:00 PM Results of $24B, 3-Year Note Auction
Price held anticipated support zone between 1986 – 1988 3 Day Central Pivot, then rallied to 2003 prior Value Area High. Afternoon reversion to daily mean capped off a neutral Cycle Day 1. Overnight trade has successfully tested PL (1984.50) support and currently trading higher near 1992.75.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NORMAL NEUTRAL…Price still undergoing bullish consolidation with an upwards lean for today. Clear and conversion of 1998.00 SPOT opens door to press for higher ground. Violation and conversion of 1984.50 weakens the current price structure.
Range Projections and Key Levels:
HOD Range Projection = 2007.33; LOD Range Projection = 1973.67; CD2 Maximum Penetration Level = 2015.46; CD2 Maximum Violation Level = 1959.10; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1984.50; 3 Day Central Pivot = 1992.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2016.39; 10 Day Average True Range = 26.58.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price converts 1992.75 3D Central Pivot, THEN upside targets 1996.25 – 1998.00. Strength above this zone targets 2007.33 high range projection.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of PL (1984.50) weakens current price structure targeting 1973.67 lower range projection.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS