Trade Strategy 3.8.19

Markets

It will be hard to match January’s big gain of 304,000 jobs, but another strong increase in payrolls is expected despite a bad winter seen by weather-sensitive industries. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 181,000 in February, with the unemployment rate falling back below 4% and average hourly earnings rising by 0.3%.

Asian stocks shuddered lower overnight, with losses of 4.4% seen on the Shanghai Composite, after shockingly weak trade data from China. Exports in February tumbled 20.7% from a year earlier, far beneath forecasts of a 4.8% drop and more than erasing January’s surprise jump.

In Asia, Japan -2%. Hong Kong -1.9%. China -4.4%. India -0.2%. 
In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -1.1%. 
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -1.6% to $55.77. Gold +0.6% to $1294.10. Bitcoin +0.5% to $3870. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.64%

Source: Seeking Alpha

Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

8:30 Non-farm payrolls
8:30 Housing Starts
10:00 Fed’s Daly Speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
10:00 PM Jerome Powell speech

***PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is faltering during GLOBEX ahead of RTH Session, following a Cycle Day 1 “Normal Decline” which fulfilled downside price objectives. Break below CD1 Low (2743.75) place bulls on the defensive yet again.

CD1 Range High = 2764.00       CD1 Range Low = 2733.00    CD1 Range Avg = 24.00

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 2743.75, THEN initial upside potential targets 2750 – 2755 zone. Conversion above this zone expands upper targets to 2760 – 65 range high.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 2743.75 zone, THEN initial downside objective targets 2733 – 2730 range low.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2019 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2764.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2733.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2779.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2771.50; 10 Day Average True Range 25.00; VIX: 17.40

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is faltering during GLOBEX ahead of RTH Session, following a Cycle Day 1 “Normal Decline” which fulfilled downside price objectives. Price has broken below CD1 Low (7031.50) which place bulls on the defensive yet again.

CD1 Range High = 7061.00          CD1 Range Low = 7006.00          CD1 Range Avg = 56.50

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 7031.50, THEN initial upside potential targets 7041.00 – 7061.00 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 7031.50, THEN initial downside objective targets 7006.00 – 7002.50 CD2 Violation Range Zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2019 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7081.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6986.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7140.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7099.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 79.00; VIX: 17.40

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN