Today marks the seven-year anniversary of the current bull market for U.S. stocks, which have logged more than 84 months without posting a decline of 20% that marks a retreat into bear territory. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, the current bull run is the third-longest on record, with the average lasting slightly less than 59 months. How much have U.S. indexes gained since March 9, 2009? Dow +159%; S&P 500 +193%; Nasdaq +266%.
In Asia, Japan -0.8% to 16642. Hong Kong -0.1% to 19996. China -1.3% to 2863. India +0.6% to 24794.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.5%. Paris +1.1%. Frankfurt +1.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude +1.5% to $37.05. Gold -0.7% to $1254.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 1.88%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Wholesale Trade
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $20B, 10-Year Note Auction
S&P e-mini (ES) continued to consolidate albeit with slight downward bias in prior session but held firm at the 1978 handle Demand Line set last week. We will continue to qualify this action as bullish consolidation until the 1978.00 handle violated and converted…Otherwise expectation is for a push to higher ground in coming days.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…NORMAL SPILL UP…Having pulled back to successfully test 1978.00 Demand Line, price is now higher in overnight trade back to 1992.75 3 Day Central Pivot. Conversion of this level opens door to press higher to test 2006.50 SPOT.
Range Projections and Key Levels:
HOD Range Projection = 2005.08; LOD Range Projection = 1966.92; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 2016.75; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 1962.31; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1984.50; 3 Day Central Pivot = 1992.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2016.39; 10 Day Average True Range = 26.33.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts CD1 Low, THEN initial upside objective is 1992.75 3D Central Pivot. Conversion of this level targets a push to 2006.50 SPOT. Beyond this level price can vault higher to 2016.50 3 Day Cycle Range Target.
Scenario 2: Currently price above CD1 Low (1984.50)…Any violation and conversion during cash session creates additional price weakness targeting retest of 1978.00 Demand Line. Conversion if this line opens trap door down to 1971.25…1966.92 Range Projection.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS