The markets are flashing red ahead of today’s jobs report, as traders expect strong numbers in March to put a Fed rate hike back on the table. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased 205K last month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at an eight-year low of 4.9% amid tepid wage gains. Apart from the big announcement, there is a bunch of other economic data on tap: Auto Sales, PMI/ISM Manufacturing Index, Consumer Sentiment, Construction Spending and the Baker-Hughes Rig Count.
In Asia, Japan -3.6% to 16164. Hong Kong -1.3% to 20499. China +0.2% to 3009. India -0.3% to 25270.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.4%. Paris -2.1%. Frankfurt -2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -2.2% to $37.51. Gold -0.2% to $1233.10.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.79%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
Markets were generally quiet yesterday with a downward skew ahead of today’s Non-Farm Payroll Report. In overnight trade prices as being quoted lower below prior low (2047.25).
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Recent cycles have behaved near perfectly with this expected decline beginning on time during Cycle Day 3. Average Decline on CD1 measures 2037.33 with LOD Range Projection 2039.49. 10 Day Average True Range has now contracted to 16.52 handles making for less-robust trading opportunities.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection = 2057.77; LOD Range Projection = 2039.49; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 2071.00; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 2025.36; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2019.25; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2049.25; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2056.68; 10 Day Average True Range = 16.52.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price is currently below PL (2047.25)…Bulls will need to perform and push back above this level to stem any further decline. Any bounce may encounter resistance at 2049.25 – 2050.75 3 Day Central Pivot Zone, followed by a tight zone between 2053.50 – 2056.50.
Scenario 2: Violation of PL (2047.25) forces long selling with initial downside objective measuring 2039.49 with LOD Range Projection 2039.49. Average Cycle Decline measures 2037.33.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS