Trade Strategy 4.11.18

Markets
 
Investors eager to learn what Fed policymakers think of the U.S.-China trade dispute, the yield curve and the pace of future rate hikes may get a peek at their outlook today when the central bank publishes minutes of its March meeting. The Labor Department’s inflation report will also be in the spotlight. While the rate remains modest, and likely stayed that way in March, today’s figure will be a key factor in determining how quickly the Fed bumps up rates.
 
In Asia, Japan -0.5%. Hong Kong +0.6%. China +0.6%. India +0.2%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.5%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.7%. S&P -0.8%. Nasdaq -0.9%. Crude +0.5% to $65.86. Gold +0.3% to $1349.80. Bitcoin +0.1% to $6837. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.79%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Consumer Price Index
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $20B, 10-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM FOMC minutes
2:00 PM Treasury Budget

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2601.00. Average Range for CD1 is 51.06 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 71% Odds of decline > 20 = 41% Possible CD1 Range Low = 2632.25.

Scenario 1: Bulls will need to hold support within 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (2727.50 – 2631.50) to stem further weakness during RTH Session. IF successful, THEN 2654 is targeted.

Scenario 2: Bears have regained ball control and are pressing during overnight session. Lower objectives 2610 – 2601 CD1 Average Decline Zone.

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2684.25; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2598.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2584.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2629.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2705.00; 10 Day Average True Range 57.00; VIX: 21.18

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 6464.50. Average Range for CD1 is 142.25 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 25 = 63% Possible CD1 Range Low = 6485.00.

Scenario 1: Bulls will need to hold support within 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (6529.00 – 6537.00) to stem further weakness during RTH Session. IF successful, THEN 6593.00 is targeted.

Scenario 2: Bears have regained ball control and are pressing during overnight session. Lower objectives 6480.50 – 6464.50 CD1 Average Decline Zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ)

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 6731.75; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6447.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 6408.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6533.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 6612.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 180.25; VIX: 21.18.

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN