The trade picture in the world’s second-largest economy staged a turnaround last month, although economists cautioned the data was heavily influenced by seasonal distortions from China’s Lunar New Year holiday. After declines in both January and February, March exports surged 18.7% from a year earlier, while imports dipped only a slight 1.7%. In dollar terms, exports rose 11.5%, returning to growth for the first time in nine months, as imports fell by a less than expected 7.6%. Global equities are all higher on the news.
In Asia, Japan +2.8% to 16381. Hong Kong +3.2% to 21158. China +1.4% to 3066. India +1.9% to 25627.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.4%. Paris +2.5%. Frankfurt +2.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.8%. Crude -1.4% to $41.58. Gold -1.2% to $1246.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.79%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Producer Price Index
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $20B, 10-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
.Tuesday’s Session was a textbook Cycle Day 2 (CD2) as price violated CD1 Low (2032.50), found support and rallied, only to retest CD1 Low (2032.50) and then the real rally began in earnest reaching upper Cycle Range Projection Targets.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…In overnight trade price has extended the rally beyond CD2 High (2058.50) to hit 2069.13 which is CD2 Maximum Penetration Level. Average 3 Day Cycle Rally Target measures 2072.47.
Bulls clearly have dominant control and with Options Expiry on tap this week, does not look like they will relinquish their control. Bear’s beware!!! First sign of weakness will be price trading back below prior high (2058.50).
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection = 2076.30; LOD Range Projection = 2046.95; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 2073.18; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 2021.38; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2032.50; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2043.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2072.47; 10 Day Average True Range = 22.30.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2058.50), THEN upside expansion targets 2069.13 CD2 Maximum Penetration Level. Above this level is 2072.47 Average 3 Day Cycle Rally Target…HOD Range Projection measures 2076.30.
Scenario 2: Price is currently trading at 2069.13 CD2 Maximum Penetration Level…First sign of weakness (SOW) will be failure to hold 2062 handle on pullback. Next level to be mindful of is PH (2058.50)…Violation of this level increases likelihood of deeper decline into prior range.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS