All eyes are on Doha this weekend where a meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers is being held to discuss freezing output at current levels. Ahead of the big event, another Russian official poured cold water on hopes that a freeze would boost crude costs. “I want to say that we don’t expect any changes in the price in spite of the negotiations which are being conducted currently with oil-extracting nations,” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told CNBC. Crude futures -1.7% to $40.79/bbl.
In Asia, Japan -0.4% to 16848. Hong Kong -0.1% to 21316. China -0.1% to 3078. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude -1.7% to $40.79. Gold +0.4% to $1231.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 to 1.76%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
12:50 PM Fed’s Evans speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
Prior DTS Report 4.14.16 stated that “Any decline may be be relatively shallow as Mutual Funds continue on their buying spree on any price dips.” This is exactly what happened as price continues to trade with upside bias…Yesterday’s cash session range was only 10 handles as price consolidated recent gains. Options Expiration is on tap for today.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NEUTRAL SPILL…Expectation for today is for continued price consolidation with as upside drift…Options Expiry may have an overall influence today as well. As long as CD1 Low (2068.50) is not seriously violated and converted, potential exists for additional upside. We still view any decline in price to be viewed as buying opportunity for the big money.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection = 2094.45; LOD Range Projection = 2057.30; CD2 Maximum Penetration Level = 2093.98; CD2 Maximum Violation Level = 2049.32; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2068.50; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2064.25; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2099.36; 10 Day Average True Range = 22.70.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price continues to hold above PL (2068.50) THEN initial objective is to clear and convert 2076.00 Central Pivot. Penetration of PH (2081.25) clears a path to 2084.25, then clear sailing up to 2092.75 – 2094.00.
Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts PL (2068.50), THEN initial objective will be to test 2064.25 – 2061.50 3 Day Central Pivot Zone for renewed buy response. Failure to find sufficient response opens door for decline down to 2059.25 – 2054.50 STATX Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS