The European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates and other stimulus tools unchanged at its meeting today while it ponders the effects of policy measures it took last month. That bazooka of stimulus included increasing monthly asset purchases to €80B, cutting rates, unveiling four new TLTRO operations, and introducing corporate bond buying into its QE program. Will it really help get medium-term inflation to just under 2%? Mario Draghi will likely address that issue and other questions at his news conference scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET.
Crude prices are steadying following a major jump on Wednesday as government data showed that U.S. crude stocks rose slightly less than expected last week, while the U.S. dollar advanced against the euro ahead of today’s ECB meeting. The lack of movement comes despite the IEA predicting 2016 would see the biggest fall in non-OPEC production in the last 25 years (almost 700K bpd), helping rebalance a market that has been dogged by oversupply. “At the same time, global demand growth is in a hectic pace, led by India, China and other emerging countries,” IEA chief Fatih Birol told reporters in Tokyo. Crude futures flat at $44.18/bbl
In Asia, Japan +2.7% to 17364. Hong Kong +1.8% to 21622. China -0.7% to 2953. India +0.1% to 25880.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude flat $44.18. Gold +0.5% to $1261.20.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.86%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 Money Supply
4:30 Fed Balance Sheet
HOD Range Projection = 2114.00; LOD Range Projection = 2084.65; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 2119.32; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 2076.00; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2084.75; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2088.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2110.68 10 Day Average True Range = 19.35.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts CD2 high (2105.50), THEN initial upside objective is 2108.25, followed by 2110.68 up through 2114.00. CD3 Max Penetration Level measures 2119.32.
Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 2095.00 SPOT, THEN this would be viewed as early Sign of Weakness (SOW) initially targeting 2090.50 – 2087.00 3 Day Central Pivot Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS