The FOMC is today scheduled to start the first of a two-day meeting where it’s expected to hold rates at 0.25-0.5%. As ever, there will be as much interest in the Fed’s statement as in the decision itself, with all and sundry looking for clues as to what bank officials might decide in their next meetings. Optimism about the economy could signal a rate rise in the near future but pessimism could indicate there will be no such thing anytime soon. Janet Yellen wasn’t particularly helpful when she said recently that the U.S. is “on a solid course” but that “we’re suffering a drag from the global economy.”
In Asia, Japan +0.5% to 17353. Hong Kong +0.5% to 21407. China +0.3% to 9648. India +1.3% to 26007.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt flat.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude +0.8% to $42.98. Gold -0.4% to $1235.45.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.91%.
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Durable Goods
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $34B, 10-Year Note Auction
HOD Range Projection = 2097.80; LOD Range Projection = 2074.95; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 2105.84; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 2062.45; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2075.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2084.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2108.96 10 Day Average True Range = 16.30.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Bulls must clear and convert CD2 High (2091.50) to expand upon this cycle’s rally. IF this occurs upside targets 2095.00 – 2097.80. Above this zone opens potential to reach 2106 – 2109 zone.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert CD2 High (2091.50) keeps price contained within recent 20 handle range (2091 – 2071). Violation of lower range opens door to deeper downside break targeting 2062.45.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS