Trade Strategy 4.27.16

Markets

Global equities were broadly flat-to-lower ahead of the second day of the FOMC’s policy meeting, where the Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.25-0.5%. As ever, there’ll be much interest in the bank’s statement for what it indicates for future decisions. Other factors affecting prices this morning include mixed earnings reports in Japan, Europe and the U.S., with those from Apple (AAPL) particularly hurting the relevant stocks.

In Asia, Japan -0.4% to 17290. Hong Kong -0.4% to 21331. China -0.4% to 9608. India +0.2% to 26052.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.25%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -1.1%. Crude +1.9% to $44.87. Gold +0.3% to $1246.75.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -0.025 bps to 1.91

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 International trade in goods
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
PTG Trading
Price tested Cycle Day 2 High (2091.25) and was rejected, setting up a reversal which pushed price lower to test prior Open where price found responsive buying support. The remainder of session was extremely quiet as traders await FOMC Decision today and absorb plethora of earnings releases.
Key Note: 10-Day Average True Range is currently 14.88 and volumes have contracted significantly with VIX near low end of historical range. This combination of market metrics is a constant challenge for the intra-day trader.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1) NORMAL DOWN…Contracting ranges with reduced volatility have been producing below average swings…With FOMC today anything goes as prior session was in “inside-day”.
Better to BE PATIENT than become the patient.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract

HOD Range Projection = 2095.63; LOD Range Projection = 2072.12; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 2100.54; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 2066.98; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2075.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2083.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2108.96 10 Day Average True Range = 14.88.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 2091.50 SPOT, THEN range expansion can unfold targeting 2095.63, followed by 2100.54.

Scenario 2: IF price violates 2079.50 would be first SOW targeting 2072.12, followed by 2068.86 – 2066.98 zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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