Trade Strategy 4.29.16

Markets

Oil prices are higher in early trading after yesterday’s report by the U.S. Department of Energy showed a decrease in domestic crude production. Some analysts think the recent strong gains in oil will be capped soon with a sustainable rise in OPEC production around the corner, while other maintain undersupply will be the theme in the second half of the year. WTI crude trades at a six-month high of $46.46 per barrel at last check.

Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan closed for holiday. Hong Kong -1.6% to 21037. China -0.3% to 9569. India +0.1% to 25617.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -1.3%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude +0.9% to $46.46. Gold +0.9% to $1277.20.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bp to 1.84%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar
6:30 Fed’s Kaplan: Monetary Policy
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 Employment Cost Index
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 Farm Prices
PTG Trading
Early price strength drove price higher to test the upper edge (2091 – 2094) of weekly range, only to reverse hard selling lower to test lower price edge (2071) violating Cycle Day 1 Low (2076.25). Currently in overnight trade price is hovering slightly below 2071 SPOT which is consider critical support.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price will need to trade above 2076.25 to turn in a Positive 3 Day Cycle and odds do favor this occurrence, however once achieved price could go either way.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract

HOD Range Projection = 2084.23; LOD Range Projection = 2059.77; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 2109.15; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 2056.70; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2076.25; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2083.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2107.16;10 Day Average True Range = 16.23.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price can hold 2071 SPOT THEN initial objective is to clear and convert 2076.25 (CD1 Low) for a Positive 3 Day Cycle. Additional upside targets measure 2079.75 followed by 2083.50.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert 2076.25 and subsequent trade below 2071 SPOT increases odds for long liquidation with targets measuring 2059.77 – 2056.50 ATR Max Range Projection zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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