Crude prices headed further south overnight after Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said the country’s oil exports jumped in March to surpass 2M barrels a day, according to the official Shana news service. Prices also remained under pressure following Saudi Arabia’s announcement on Friday that backed away from a commitment and stated it was only on board to freeze production if major producers, including Iran, did the same. Is an April 17 output freeze meeting still in sight?
In Asia, Japan -0.3% to 16123. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India +0.5% to 25400.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.6%. Paris +1%. Frankfurt +1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude -0.3% to $36.67. Gold -0.5% to $1217.90.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 1.77%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
10:00 Labor market condition index
10:00 Factory Orders
10:15 Fed’s Rosengren: “A View on Cybersecurity and Financial Stability from the CEO”
12:30 PM TD Ameritrade IMX
5:15 PM Fed’s Kashkari: “Too Big to Fail”
Following early weakness prices continued to march higher to close on session highs as the April Fools Joke was on the naysayer bears. Friday’s trade was textbook Cycle Day 1 as price declined to reach 2037.33 Average Decline Target on CD1…At which point buyers stepped in aggressively to absorb supply and reversed price higher in trend-up day fashion to close near highs of session.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NEUTRAL UP…Bullish momentum continues in overnight trade as price is currently above PH (2067.00)…Should this hold into cash session, upside targets 2078 – 2083 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection = 2078.23; LOD Range Projection = 2054.27; CD2 Maximum Penetration Level = 2078.93; CD2 Maximum Violation Level = 2013.596; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2035.25; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2054.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2083.08; 10 Day Average True Range = 17.23.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2067.00), THEN upside objective measures 2071.75 – 2075.25 STATX Zone, with upper targets 2078 – 2083 zone.
Scenario 2: Price is currently trading above PH (2067.00)…IF price reverses and violates this level, THEN price is expected to pullback into prior range in search of new support. Levels to be mindful of are: 2060.25, 2055.75 – 2051.25 zone where there is a cluster of overlapping confluence…Central Pivot (2055.75), 3 Day Central Pivot (2054.75) and LOD Projection (2054.27).
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS