Later today the FOMC will issue the minutes from its last meeting, where the Fed left rates unchanged and lowered its forecast for hikes this year from four to two. While traders are hoping the context will help clarify the outlook for rates, central bank watchers are less optimistic. The minutes will also follow a tough day on Wall Street, where the S&P briefly turned negative for the year and the Dow logged triple digit losses.
In Asia, Japan -0.1% to 15715. Hong Kong +0.2% to 20207. China -0.1% to 2051. India +0.1% to 24900.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt -0.5%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +3% to $36.98. Gold -0.2% to $1226.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 to 1.74%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:20 PM Fed’s Mester: Economic outlook and Monetary policy
2:00 PM FOMC minutes
Sentiment continues to flip-flop between bullish and bearish, just like a Clipper Weather System blowing through the Northeast. Traders cannot seem to agree on value for any length of time. Overall trends remain up, so Bulls continue to have the advantage for now.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Selling which began Monday and into yesterday’s session is expected to continue unless bulls can clear and convert 2048 handle, which is marked as Key Resistance. FOMC minutes release today along with EIA Petro-Report will keep traders on edge. Key Support Zone remains between 2036.00 – 2038.00.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection = 2059.03; LOD Range Projection = 2030.85; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 2066.00; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 2015.55; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2035.25; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2053.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2074.67; 10 Day Average True Range = 18.55.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price can continue to hold above 2040 SPOT and clear and convert 2048 handle, THEN upside potential carries to 2053.50 – 2059 zone.
Scenario 2: Failure to clear and convert 2048 handle with subsequent violation of 2040.00 SPOT opens trap door for continued selling pressure down to 2030.95 LOD Range Projection. Below this level forces long liquidation…Deep lower extremes measure 2021.58 – 2015.55
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS