Global oil stocks will fall by 200K barrels per day in the second half of the year after rising by 1.3M barrels per day in H1, according to the IEA. Behind the quick rise in the first half was a faster-than-expected gain in Iranian oil production and exports. Behind what’s expected to be a dramatic reduction in the second half of the year is a continuing slowdown in non-OPEC production, and stronger demand.
In Asia, Japan +0.4% to 16646. Hong Kong -0.7% to 19915. China flat to 2835. India +0.8% to 25790.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.6%. Frankfurt +0.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude +0.8% to $46.61. Gold -0.4% to $1270.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.75%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Import/Export Prices
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Fed’s Mester: Monetary policy
1:00 PM Results of $15B, 30-Year Note Auction
2:15 PM Fed’s George speech
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Cycle targets were achieved in short order all on Cycle Day 1 without the hint of a pullback…Though that appears bullish, the normal action would be to have price decline to renew buying interest. This occurred yesterday, Cycle Day 2 as price reversed the entire session to test 2060 -2062 Key Support Zone laid out in DTS Briefing 5.9.16. “Bulls will need to convert 2060 -62 zone to upper support…”
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…In overnight trade price has found solid support between 2058 – 2060 zone and has since rallied approximately 13 handles high to 2071.00 pre-cash open. Bulls will need to maintain control above 2062.50 3 Day Central Pivot. Upside objective will be to convert 2078 SPOT to support opening door to vault higher to 2089.21 3 Day Cycle Target.
HOD Range Projection = 2078.10; LOD Range Projection = 2050.65; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 2093.46; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 2047.57; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2048.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2062.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2089.21; 10 Day Average True Range = 20.60
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price hold above 2062.50, THEN initial upside objective is 2072.50 SPOT…Above this level targets 2078.10 ATR Range Projection. Conversion of this level constitutes range expansion targeting 2089.21 3 Day Cycle Target.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2065.25 would be Sign of Weakness (SOW) opening door to additional downside trade, targeting 2062.50, followed by 2058.30. Conversion below this level constitutes range expansion to downside measuring 2050.65 – 2048.00 LOD ATR Range Projection.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS