Both Treasury yields and the dollar have ticked up as traders position themselves ahead of this afternoon’s closely watched FOMC minutes. Fed officials have been talking up a storm ahead of the release, conveying hawkish tones that are also keeping stocks under pressure. During a joint speech in Washington on Tuesday, Atlanta’s Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco’s John Williams agreed that up to three rate hikes this year “seemed reasonable,” while Dallas President Robert Kaplan said he would call for a rate rise in June or July.
In Asia, Japan -0.1% to 16645. Hong Kong -1.5% to 19826. China -1.3% to 2807. India -0.3% to 25704.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude flat at $48.32. Gold -0.3% to $1273.50.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.78%
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC minutes
S&P e-mini (ES) having achieved 3 Day Cycle Target and subsequently failing to expand range above Cycle Day 2 High (2068.50) set up yesterday’s decline once price violated and convert 2058 SPOT marked as Key Support. Price accelerated throughout the afternoon session finally testing and holding above 2038.50 Cycle Day 1 Low. This level (2038.50) is now marked as Key Support, with (2068.00) Key Resistance.
Today begins a new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…The Average Decline observed on CD1 (2049.91) has already been achieved, so as such, there could be some residual selling targeting 2045 handle, otherwise a muted session ahead of Fed Minutes release.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2059.13; LOD Range Projection: 2026.12; CD1 Max Penetration Level: 2077.10; CD1 Max Violation Level: 2028.15; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2038.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2051.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2065.83; 10 Day Average True Range: 20.63
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price hold above 2038.50, first objective will be to convert 2048 SPOT to support…THEN additional upside targets 2051.25 – 2053.25 zone.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2038 handle to lower resistance potentially open flood gates for renewed selling targeting 2034 – 2030 STATX Zone, with 2028 – 2026 Xtreme Lower Projections.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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