Global stocks fell to a six-week low, sovereign bonds slumped and the dollar held gains after minutes of the Fed’s last meeting put the prospect of a June rate hike firmly on the table so long as economic data continues to show positive signs. Oil is under pressure from the financial movement, in addition to EIA data published on Wednesday showing a build in U.S. crude inventories, as well as surging output from Iran to Europe and Asia.
In Asia, Japan flat at 16647. Hong Kong -0.7% to 19694. China flat at 2807. India -1.2% to 25399.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.4%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -1.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude -1.9% to $47.27. Gold -1.5% to $1255.10.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.87%
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
10:30 Fed’s Williams Speech
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
S&P e-mini (ES) continues to retreat from any upside advancement as traders / investors are in “sell the bounce” risk-off mode, with the prospect of interest rate hike back on the table for June, according to Fed Minutes. The silver-lining about interest rate hike is that according to recent economic data, things are actually improving, albeit slowly…Options Expiration tomorrow..Hold on to your hats…
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Bulls are on the edge yet again to produce a rally that can be sustainable…Key levels (2058 and 2066) that must be converted to support for the bullish case to gain traction…Violation and conversion of 2028 – 2030 zone opens trap door for forced liquidation….
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2054.23; LOD Range Projection: 2023.27; CD2 Max Penetration Level: 2066.75; CD2 Max Violation Level: 2018.69; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2030.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2049.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2054.50; 10 Day Average True Range: 21.48
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds above CD1 Low (2030.75), THEN initial objective is to convert 2043 SPOT to support…Should this occur, further upside targets 2050 – 2055 zone, followed by 2058.00 – 2060 STATX Zone.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of CD1 Low (2030.75) increase odds of continued selling initially targeting 2027.25 followed by 2023.27 – 2018.69 Xtreme Lows.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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